Climate Information for Managed Fire
On this page you will find various types of climate information that can be used for managed fire decision-making. Please feel free to email me with questions or if you would like to suggest I add a product or information source to this list. I try to keep the links up-to-date, please email me if you find a broken one.
Product Topics
1. Seasonal Outlooks and Information
2. Prescribed Fire Planning Information
3. Drought Information
4. ENSO Information
5. Climate change data
**Most of the products presented showcase the western US. I am compiling more information for the Eastern US, Alaska, and would gladly post links sent to me.**
1. Seasonal Outlooks and Information
This is the type of information that gives you the big picture for a season. It can help identify your potential and opportunity for prescribed fire or Multiple Objective Fire (MOF) in order to prioritize resources, increase public awareness and education opportunities, and start a dialogue with Line Officers and other resource personnel so that decisions do not have to be made under as much pressure with no lead-up time.
MC1 Managed Fire Thresholds
The MC1 managed fire threshold forecasts show the areas where modeled forecasts of Standardized Precipitation Index, Fireline Intensity, and Rate of Spread, for the next 12 months will exceed the 75th percentile threshold as determined from historic prescribed fire, PNF and WFU data. Maps highlight areas where conditions mimic the conditions under which only 25% of managed fire successfully occurred.
Seasonal Outlooks from Predictive Services
Predictive Service provides a variety of outlooks for wildfire potential. These outlooks can be used to inform managed fire as well; a forecast for early or above normal fire activity might reduce capacity for prescribed fire, but may increase opportunities for multiple-objective wildfire. In contrast, a forecast for below normal wildfire activity may increase opportunities for prescribed fire.
One-month and 3-month outlooks from NOAA CPC
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center provides one-month and three-month outlooks for temperature and precipitation.
2. Prescribed Fire Planning Information
These tools are meant to provide information for planning and implementing prescribed fires, although they certainly can also be used in long-term assessment of wildfires as well. Prescribed fire planning tools can help you look for additional options for burn windows, and also justify implementing long-term goals for targets (over multiple years) instead of simply trying to reach annual targets, given the considerable interannual variability of climate.
Burn Window Climatology tool
This tool allows the user to put in burn window prescription parameters and look at how often that window occurs - over the day, over a year (in development) and over the history of the RAWS selected. This is still in development, and we would love to have feedback to improve the product for you.
Wind Rose tool
Wind climatology can be particularly important for those planning prescribed fires. For example, how often do ‘reverse’ or ‘strong’ winds happen for the time of year you are planning your burn that might be potential for disaster? Wind roses give both the frequency and strength of winds for a given RAWS.
3. Drought Information
Drought impacts managed fire in a variety of ways. It can alter fire effects from what you would expect under ‘normal’ conditions. It can increase fire behavior and the risk associated with managed fire. But it can also provide opportunities to increase the use of Multiple-Objective Wildfire on the landscape if you use drought information to open a dialogue about MOF potential with line officers, resource managers, and the public. Knowledge and preparation can allow you to capitalize on MOF opportunities during years when the conditions are right.
West Wide Drought Tracker (WWDT)
The WWDT is built on PRISM data, and allows the user to look at different types of information to understand current and historic drought situations. Unique to this product is the availability of maps for PDSI and the Standardized Precipitation Index at multiple month scales (e.g., a 1-month SPI is only the current month, while a 3-month SPI aggregates over the last 3 months). Allows you to ‘zoom in’ on states.
This product is still in development, we would appreciate your feedback HERE.
California Climate Tracker
Nevada Climate Tracker
Inland Northwest Climate TrackerClimate Trackers: these climate trackers allow you to look at both maps and time series graphs of individual station data for certain parts of the western US.
Westmap
Westmap is built on PRISM data and display both maps of historic temperature and precipitation as well as time series so you can look at departures from average for given time periods.
Greenness Maps
The old WFAS greenness maps have now been built on an interactive interface with Google Earth capacity. Much easier to use and explore vegetation stress conditions and timing.
4. ENSO Information
The El Nino Southern Oscillation impacts much of the western and southern US, and is well-established as a driver of fire regimes.
What does ENSO mean for Fire Management?
This brief was produced to give fire managers a better idea of how to interpret ENSO episodes as they impact fire business.
ENSO Climate Risk maps
These tools help to identify what the impacts of the two ENSO phases (El Nino and La Nina) are during different parts of the year on temperature and precipitation patterns in the US.
NOAA CPC ENSO
This time series shows historic ENSO index values, with the current values at the very bottom of the table. The index is standardized, with El Nino (warm) episodes in red, and La Nina (cool) episodes in blue. The higher the value (positive or negative) the stronger the event.
5. Climate Change Data
Most climate change projections are delivered as giant data sets that are neither applicable for land management needs nor are they useable by most people who don't have considerable programming skills. Here are some resources that are meant for land managers, we'll add more as we find them/they become available.
Southern California Climate Model Projections and RAWS data for the 21st century
This was the product of a funded Joint Fire Science Program project to look at the impact fo climate change on fuels treatment effectiveness. At the project website you'll find both an interactive RAWS map for Southern California that allows the user to download "future" RAWS data based on climate model projections (that are compatible with FireFamilyPlus) and an interactive tool to explore climate model scenarios in Southern California.
Product Topics
1. Seasonal Outlooks and Information
2. Prescribed Fire Planning Information
3. Drought Information
4. ENSO Information
5. Climate change data
**Most of the products presented showcase the western US. I am compiling more information for the Eastern US, Alaska, and would gladly post links sent to me.**
1. Seasonal Outlooks and Information
This is the type of information that gives you the big picture for a season. It can help identify your potential and opportunity for prescribed fire or Multiple Objective Fire (MOF) in order to prioritize resources, increase public awareness and education opportunities, and start a dialogue with Line Officers and other resource personnel so that decisions do not have to be made under as much pressure with no lead-up time.
MC1 Managed Fire Thresholds
The MC1 managed fire threshold forecasts show the areas where modeled forecasts of Standardized Precipitation Index, Fireline Intensity, and Rate of Spread, for the next 12 months will exceed the 75th percentile threshold as determined from historic prescribed fire, PNF and WFU data. Maps highlight areas where conditions mimic the conditions under which only 25% of managed fire successfully occurred.
Seasonal Outlooks from Predictive Services
Predictive Service provides a variety of outlooks for wildfire potential. These outlooks can be used to inform managed fire as well; a forecast for early or above normal fire activity might reduce capacity for prescribed fire, but may increase opportunities for multiple-objective wildfire. In contrast, a forecast for below normal wildfire activity may increase opportunities for prescribed fire.
One-month and 3-month outlooks from NOAA CPC
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center provides one-month and three-month outlooks for temperature and precipitation.
2. Prescribed Fire Planning Information
These tools are meant to provide information for planning and implementing prescribed fires, although they certainly can also be used in long-term assessment of wildfires as well. Prescribed fire planning tools can help you look for additional options for burn windows, and also justify implementing long-term goals for targets (over multiple years) instead of simply trying to reach annual targets, given the considerable interannual variability of climate.
Burn Window Climatology tool
This tool allows the user to put in burn window prescription parameters and look at how often that window occurs - over the day, over a year (in development) and over the history of the RAWS selected. This is still in development, and we would love to have feedback to improve the product for you.
Wind Rose tool
Wind climatology can be particularly important for those planning prescribed fires. For example, how often do ‘reverse’ or ‘strong’ winds happen for the time of year you are planning your burn that might be potential for disaster? Wind roses give both the frequency and strength of winds for a given RAWS.
3. Drought Information
Drought impacts managed fire in a variety of ways. It can alter fire effects from what you would expect under ‘normal’ conditions. It can increase fire behavior and the risk associated with managed fire. But it can also provide opportunities to increase the use of Multiple-Objective Wildfire on the landscape if you use drought information to open a dialogue about MOF potential with line officers, resource managers, and the public. Knowledge and preparation can allow you to capitalize on MOF opportunities during years when the conditions are right.
West Wide Drought Tracker (WWDT)
The WWDT is built on PRISM data, and allows the user to look at different types of information to understand current and historic drought situations. Unique to this product is the availability of maps for PDSI and the Standardized Precipitation Index at multiple month scales (e.g., a 1-month SPI is only the current month, while a 3-month SPI aggregates over the last 3 months). Allows you to ‘zoom in’ on states.
This product is still in development, we would appreciate your feedback HERE.
California Climate Tracker
Nevada Climate Tracker
Inland Northwest Climate TrackerClimate Trackers: these climate trackers allow you to look at both maps and time series graphs of individual station data for certain parts of the western US.
Westmap
Westmap is built on PRISM data and display both maps of historic temperature and precipitation as well as time series so you can look at departures from average for given time periods.
Greenness Maps
The old WFAS greenness maps have now been built on an interactive interface with Google Earth capacity. Much easier to use and explore vegetation stress conditions and timing.
4. ENSO Information
The El Nino Southern Oscillation impacts much of the western and southern US, and is well-established as a driver of fire regimes.
What does ENSO mean for Fire Management?
This brief was produced to give fire managers a better idea of how to interpret ENSO episodes as they impact fire business.
ENSO Climate Risk maps
These tools help to identify what the impacts of the two ENSO phases (El Nino and La Nina) are during different parts of the year on temperature and precipitation patterns in the US.
NOAA CPC ENSO
This time series shows historic ENSO index values, with the current values at the very bottom of the table. The index is standardized, with El Nino (warm) episodes in red, and La Nina (cool) episodes in blue. The higher the value (positive or negative) the stronger the event.
5. Climate Change Data
Most climate change projections are delivered as giant data sets that are neither applicable for land management needs nor are they useable by most people who don't have considerable programming skills. Here are some resources that are meant for land managers, we'll add more as we find them/they become available.
Southern California Climate Model Projections and RAWS data for the 21st century
This was the product of a funded Joint Fire Science Program project to look at the impact fo climate change on fuels treatment effectiveness. At the project website you'll find both an interactive RAWS map for Southern California that allows the user to download "future" RAWS data based on climate model projections (that are compatible with FireFamilyPlus) and an interactive tool to explore climate model scenarios in Southern California.